here with more senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for international
peace one of the men who helped coordinate the Iran nuclear deal with
the State Department Jared Blanc Jared nice to see you as always sir let's
start with this key word you keep hearing denuclearization the ignores use
it the South Koreans use it the United States keeps using it does it mean the
same thing to everybody well I think we don't know what it means exactly to the
North Koreans my guess and I think the the the broad
opinion of the expert community is that it does not mean to the North Koreans
what we would hope it would mean which is quickly getting rid of their nuclear
weapons and their nuclear infrastructure infrastructure the president now is
calling this the start of a process he says the sit down in Singapore for June
12th does that make sense should it be a process or should we expect Kim jong-un
to walk in and say look you look the sanctions I give up my nukes we're done
I think that that's the best news out of this week is that the president is now
talking about a process as opposed to a one-hit meeting if this is going to work
it is going to work as a result of a long term process of building confidence
and meeting each other as national security requirements interesting that
we hear someone from the left as you are and someone who is as hawkish as
secretary mattis both using that term confidence-building well I think it's
a-you know both both secretary mattis and I are probably pretty hawkish on the
question of whether or not North Korea is a threat to international peace and
security I think both secretary mattis and I are also probably pretty realistic
about how this process is likely to play out given what we've seen in other
situations and given our understanding of North Korea's national security
concerns well they've certainly been blunt in their language as has president
Trump we had the little rocket man we had to talk about what the US military
could do to North Korea we had the words over and over from the White House and
from the podium maximum pressure maximum pressure and yesterday after his meeting
with the vice chairman from North Korea this is what the president had to say
about that policy I don't want to use the term maximum pressure anymore
because I don't want to use that term because we're getting along you see the
relationship we're getting a little says that a question of maximum pressure
staying essentially the way it is at some point hopefully a deal for the good
of millions of people a deal will be working getting ahead of ourselves on
that one well I think the truth is that maximum pressure has always been
analytically wrong as a way to understand what's going on on the Korean
Peninsula Kim met his core objective he tested a thermonuclear weapon and he
tested ICBMs which at least plausibly could reach the continental United
States he had been saying publicly for years that after doing those things he
was going to turn to diplomacy and economic concerns and that's exactly
what he's done I think what we're seeing is Kim's plan playing out as opposed to
the results of any quote-unquote maximum pressure from the United States I also
think you're saying the North Koreans in there's a lot of other folks who would
agree with you on this probably this is what summarize it is that the the Kim's
have been pretty honest on what their playbook is and they're just continuing
to do it sort of like the Chinese are in the sparklies in other places I think
that's about right I think the only real surprise here for the Kim's is how far
they've gotten in how fast President Trump
driving ahead for this summit opening the door for Kim to rebuild his
relationship with Beijing rebuild his relationship with Moscow I think this is
all played out faster and better than it anticipated but basically along the
lines that he had he had intended know so far the North Koreans conceivably
have played things pretty well whether it be playing the Clinton administration
the Bush administration or the Obama administration last point is something
that you were an expert in in the Iran deal of compliance if the summit results
in a deal or multiple summits result in a deal compliance and enforcement in
Iran was difficult it's one of the things that Republicans really complain
about about the Iran deal if it's difficult in Iran it seems like it would
be almost near impossible in North Korea well I think you've got to be realistic
about what we can expect in terms of inspections and compliance we've got to
have very very high expectations but at the same time we have to be aware that
we're not going to know everything that's going on in North Korea I know
almost nothing that's going on in North Korea right now with you I I hope that
the Trump administration is in gay the real non-proliferation experts at
the Department of Energy at the Department of State and in the IEA this
is something that they haven't been great about in every issue they haven't
found ways to use the civil service but there are people who understand how
these processes work on an engineering and a scientific basis they need to be
involved from the beginning and figuring out what are the right asks and how do
we verified they're being followed as we've heard at least anecdotally that
secretary Pompeo now is he's come back into the State Department is trying to
reengage some of the very folks you talked about mr. walk always good to see
you sir thank you very much here with more senior fellow at the Carnegie
Endowment for international peace one of the men who helped coordinate the Iran
nuclear deal with the State Department Jared Blanc Jared nice to see you as
always sir let's start with this key word you keep hearing denuclearization
the North Koreans use it the South Koreans use it the United States keeps
using it does it mean the same thing to everybody well I think we don't know
what it means exactly to the North Koreans my guess and I think the the the
broad opinion of the expert community is that it does not mean to the North
Koreans what we would hope it would mean which is quickly getting rid of their
nuclear weapons and their nuclear infrastructure infrastructure the
president now is calling this the start of a process he says the sit down in
Singapore for June 12th does that make sense should it be a process or should
we expect Kim jong-un to walk in and say look you look the sanctions I give up my
nukes we're done I think that that's the best news out of this week is that the
president is now talking about a process as opposed to a one-hit meeting if this
is going to work it is going to work as a result of a long term process of
building confidence and meeting each other as national security requirements
interesting that we hear someone from the left as you are and someone who is
as hawkish as secretary mattis both using that term confidence-building well
I think it's a you know both both secretary mattis and I are probably
pretty hawkish on the question of whether or not North Korea is a threat
to international peace and security I think both secretary mattis and I are
also probably pretty realistic about how this process is likely to play out given
what we've seen in other situations and given our understanding of North Korea's
national security concerns well they've certainly been blunt in their language
as has president Trump we had the little ROK
man we had to talk about what the US military could do to North Korea we had
the words over and over from the White House and from the podium maximum
pressure maximum pressure and yesterday after his meeting with the vice chairman
from North Korea this is what the president had to say about that policy I
don't even want to use the term maximum pressure anymore because I don't want to
use that term because we're getting along you see the relationship we're
getting it's not a question of maximum pressure staying essentially the way it
is at some point hopefully a deal for the good of millions of people a deal
will be working getting ahead of ourselves on that one well I think the
truth is that maximum pressure has always been analytically wrong as a way
to understand what's going on on the Korean Peninsula Kim met his core
objective he tested a thermonuclear weapon and he tested ICBMs which at
least plausibly could reach the continental United States he had been
saying publicly for years that after doing those things he was going to turn
to diplomacy and economic concerns and that's exactly what he's done I think
what we're seeing is Kim's plan playing out as opposed to the results of any
quote-unquote maximum pressure from the United States I also think you're saying
the North Koreans in there's a lot of other folks who would agree with you on
this probably this is what summarize it is that the the Kim's have been pretty
honest on what their playbook is and they're just continuing to do it sort of
like the Chinese are in the sparklies in other places I think that's about right
I think the only real surprise here for the Kim's is how far they've gotten in
how fast President Trump driving ahead for this summit opening
the door for Kim to rebuild his relationship with Beijing rebuild his
relationship with Moscow I think this is all played out faster and better than it
anticipated but basically along the lines that he had he had intended know
so far the North Koreans conceivably have played things pretty well whether
it be playing the Clinton administration the Bush administration or the Obama
administration last point is something that you were an expert in in the Iran
deal of compliance if the summit results in a deal or multiple summits result in
a deal compliance and enforcement in Iran was difficult it's one of the
things that Republicans really complain about about the Iran deal if it's
difficult in Iran it seems like it would be almost near impossible in North Korea
well I think be realistic about what we can expect in
terms of inspections and compliance we've got to have very very high
expectations but at the same time we have to be aware that we're not going to
know everything that's going on in North Korea I know almost nothing that's going
on in North Korea right now with you I I hope that the Trump administration is
engaging the real non-proliferation experts at the Department of Energy at
the Department of State and in the IEA this is something that they haven't been
great about in every issue they haven't found ways to use the civil service but
there are people who understand how these processes work on an engineering
and a scientific basis they need to be involved from the beginning and figuring
out what are the right asks and how do we verify they're being followed as
we've heard at least anecdotally that secretary Pompeo now as he's come back
into the State Department is trying to reengage some of the very folks you
talked about mr. walk always good to see you sir
thank you very much
you
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