so it's been another decent week on the markets I'm in a bit of a roll at the
moment which is good but there were two trades that I did this week that were
pretty simple to do than I think anybody can do you'll do it better if you've got
that angel now but I thought I would do a quick video to explain those two
trades and what was behind those two trades this week please like and comment
on the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more
of them in the future if you're interested in learning to trade
successfully in sports then why not visit the BET angel' academy where we
have more detailed videos so very often trading doesn't need to be particularly
complicated and in fact there are a few things that you can do that are
relatively straightforward but where the skill comes is in the execution not the
actual trade setup itself it's in actually executing the trade and making
something of it when the situation occurs because opportunities occur all
of the time and repeating patterns you just need to be there to be able to do
something about it and to perhaps be able to jump in just before everybody
else realizes what is going on so the first trade was slightly unusual
have a look at this picture this was on Oaks Day I was the listed race towards
the end of the day but have a look at this picture of this particular race and
tell me what you see in this particular picture this is a
picture of the favorite and the favori is going to post his perfectly calm the
jockey has complete control so upon seeing this picture I initiated a trade
and when you look at horses and horse racing in general one of the
difficulties that you have one of the reasons that this is the hardest market
to crack from a betting perspective is there are so many variables it's so sort
of not random because nothing's totally random but there are so many inputs into
what the price really should be that very often it's difficult to work out
exactly what that price should be and one of the factors that you have to take
account of as the horses to me okay the horses run rope well it has a really
strong form line but you go to saddle up the horse and it
doesn't like it and you take it to the program and it's getting a bit tetchy
and then there's a problem going to post and therefore if you were going to put
your money down on a horse that exhibited that type of behavior you
probably wouldn't if you were a professional punter now your average Joe
doesn't know that they'll just have a tenner on the favour anyway especially
if they've had a few bears but your professional punter will be looking at
all of those characteristics to figure out whether the horse really merits his
money or not so when you look at that sort of thing you have to take account
of all of those particular factors and one of the factors that we're looking at
here manifests itself if I show you another image so when you look at this
screenshot again what you will see now is that we have two horses on this
particular screenshots and we've got the favour in front of it and are not horse
donor which one that is that's just sitting behind it but can you notice the
difference between the two of them because if you look at the favorite you
can see that its coat is very reflective and shiny and you look at the horse
behind it and it's horse is very matte and non reflective so what's going on
here well the favorite is sweating up and typically some horses exhibit this
characteristic per se but typically it's something that is not normal and when a
horse it starts to split up it's usually because it's anxious it's using up a bit
of energy and when you're looking at much much shorter races you want the
horse to have all of its energy ready to run that particular race you don't
really want it using an expending energy on the way to the start of the race
itself so just the shine on that coat tells you that it is sweating up and
there are obviously other signs as well that you can pick up on a horse to see
that it's sweating up you very often see dried sweat around the saddle cloths and
so on so it's a funny thing to be looking at however it can give you a
clue in the market as about as to what is happening or what is going to happen
next within the market because people that were going to put money on the
favorite probably won't do it if the favorite is sweating up so
they may just not back it any longer and you may actually find people come in and
act and actively lay the horse when it exhibits this sort of characteristic so
on this particular race you may have seen it in the market before yeah you're
busy trading something and then boom the price goes out and it may be if you're
not watching pictures this is exactly what's going on and in this particular
race that's exactly what happened when I see something like that then I'll
naturally lay the horse with the expectation that probably the backing
will dry up and in fact the price may start heading out in the other direction
so yeah if you see a horse that looks recalcitrant or there's a problem or
maybe it's sweating up in the way that you see with this particular runner then
it's probably an opportunity to definitely not back it but it may be a
lay opportunity in there as well and on this particular race that's exactly what
happened if we look at the graph on that particular race you can see immediately
the pictures became available and this was down to the split second that these
pictures became available everybody started laying it or not backing it it
was one of the two we can tell specifically which sometimes but you can
tell that basically the price was going to drift and that's what happened for
the rest of the race a little bit of support came back in because when it
reached post time it seems to be pretty calm but then a little bit of light
laying came in into the market from there but one thing that you wouldn't do
is you wouldn't be looking to back this horse with the hope that the price was
going to shorten if you're actively trading it and you saw that it was
sweating up and none of the other horses were then naturally you'd probably want
to lay on there or be on the lay side of that particular market so yeah a great
opportunity to lay the horse and back it at a higher price later on within the
market itself so if I wind you forward to Derby Day the Derby market was pretty
interesting this year very big market the biggest market that I've seen for
about ten years on the Derby most of that was due to the interest in the
favorite and the fact that it was that a shorter price so that tends to generate
volume anyway but I managed to pick off a pretty decent result from the Derby so
I always tend to do all of the Derby it's one of those big races the year
that I get excited about that I really want to get a decent total on so I'm
pleased that I managed to do this year but within that market there
were so many different aspects actually thought it's one of the more fascinating
markets that have been around this year but the opportunity I'd like to
highlight to you in this market was on has a poor so everything was going
pretty normally on has a poor and then all of a sudden boom the price goes
absolutely flying out now if you would have looked at has a poor on the way to
post here you would have noticed absolutely nothing he looks fine no
absolutely no particular reason for the price to go that mad when it does go mad
like that you sort of suspect that maybe there's you know a bot that has gone mad
and another one jumps in front of it and so on and then it did the market just
loses its marbles but it was a very very odd sort of market overall and has a
poor was a really sort of strange situation but of course upon seeing the
price start to go rocketing out I immediately turn my attention to the
pictures again to have a look and see if I could find where has a halt was
because maybe he was running off across the Epsom Downs somewhere and maybe that
was why his price would happen no he was absolutely fine there were no issues no
reason to think that the price would go out so that looks like a total anomaly
to me so when you see this in the market what you should do is as the price
starts flying out you try and catch it right at the top you put a couple of
orders in at a speculative price near the top of that or when you see the
price starting to head back in the other direction and then you trader out a much
much lower price so you tends to find these opportunities come around
completely at random and you may have even missed it within the market however
the tip that I can give you here is within betangel if you use the
automation or a servant you can actually get better angel to monitor how much a
price is moving and if it moves quite violently within a short period of time
bet angel can actually alert you to the fact that that has happened it can do
that by popping up a message on your screen or you can actually get it to
fire off a sound alert so I use the sound alert and often when you see me
trade in fact if you were to ever come here and watch me trade or look over my
shoulder or see me from a distance you will see I always have headphones on or
a loud speaker and that is because potential is pumping audio
alerts to me all of the time it's telling me things that are happening
within the market that I'm not necessarily looking at so today I get an
alert I've no idea what is going on particularly within the market but the
alert gets me interested in it I see that it has a port I have a look at how
the poor can't see anything wrong with the horse at all so I stick in a few
speculative back orders at the top end of the market and what happens next well
sure enough you know if if you're in the market and something that you were
trying to back is it at a low price it's sort of 15 s - 17 s and then you see it
available at 30 s what are you gonna do you're gonna back it the best available
price you can and arbres kick in and bookmakers and people hedging it and
people who can see the anomaly and then of course that brings the price all the
way back down to where it was from from from its extreme Heights so yeah that
was an opportunity that occurred in the Darby today completely unexpected
totally out of the blue and it does happen quite frequently one of the best
examples I can give you is this happens to modern big dude in the Grand National
a few years ago but yeah when the price spikes out unexpected like that and you
can see no cause and that's probably an opportunity to do a back to lay trade
within that market because you'll probably see the price come back at some
particular point any time it wouldn't do as we've learnt at the beginning of this
video is perhaps if there's something wrong with horse or the market doesn't
like it or perhaps it's running loose across the countryside but on this
occasion it wasn't everything looked fine so I just put in a few speculative
back orders and then waited for the price to revert back and in fact that's
you know one of the things that made a big contribution to my overall trade on
the Derby this year but anyhow two little tips there for you both of which
are equally valid and that I trade it this week easy to understand and if you
want to get the best out of a piece of software like bet Center set it up to
look for those sort of opportunities within the market as well but yeah
decent Derby decent result overall this week and I can't wait for the next big
meeting
you
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