and a good day everyone it's time for the tropical update with J7409 for
Friday the 5th of October 2018 wishing and hoping all of you are having
a very good day for yourself today in the days ahead now let's check things
out over here we have Sergio this is the area right here everybody needs to keep
their eyes on especially I'm going to show you here this is the European model
for people it looks like it's coming right up the Panhandle okay now it we it
was still early we really don't know so I would suggest everyone for at least
from Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Florida and Georgia be aware of this
system as it develops and over here of course is Leslie the storm that has been
off and on there for weeks on hand now I told you guys a long time ago where it
seems like a long time to me at least probably five days ago Sergio was going
to turn it remember it look like Sergey I was going to go out to see I told you
Sergio was going to turn and even it showed you I said look did you see that
guys I was wondering if he picked up on it looking like Sergio it's going to
come over the California Baja Peninsula and maybe I thanked parts of Arizona and
New Mexico again as well as other states looking like this one maybe just a
little farther south of where it comes in so we'll wait and see what happens
with that this system as I've said I'll show you from the National Hurricane
Center now has a 60% chance of warming and it finally looks like Lesley over
here is going to get in between those two high systems and a very powerful
load coming up off the coast of Canada maybe in a few days will suck it on up
and get it on out this is the European model once again set for 7:00 a.m. this
morning so we're going to move up in time too
around midnight tonight now you can see Leslie still hanging around this is
getting a little better organized and this is set on the wind model the wind
model here's Sergio over here this is not the gust of wind model it's just
regular sustained winds so let's hop on up to Saturday at 11:00 p.m. now it's
looking like certainty I may have backed off a little bit over here disturbance
number one still trying Scott just a little bit of turn to it with vorticity
not really bad leslie hasn't gone anywhere said we'll go to Sunday at
midnight still looks like Sergio's moving on out of the way but just hold
on okay and now disturbance number ones getting even a little more organized
less looks like she may be trying to move on out we'll turn the pressure on
at this time see what it's looking like you can see Sergio it looks like it's
going to move away but it's going to change people and this is just trying as
you can see it only has one ice a bar around it's just a load okay it's trying
to form so moving up in time this is midnight Monday
Sergio starts to make his turn back this is still just a low system okay just a
low system but the winds are there and Leslie moves out a little further by
Tuesday at 1:00 a.m. this is the 9th of October you can see Sergio is back in
the picture clearly this low is trying to get better organized and Leslie seems
to be moving on out Thursday the 11th of October at 1:00 a.m. now you can see
what's happening this small low which we've been watching is encapsulated by
another letter so it's following it that's what's going
to bring it up this way at this point Leslie we don't have to worry about its
getting pulled up I'll show you by that very large love that came off of
the water up here I was telling you about there's the high
here's another high got squeezed in and finally it looks like Leslie is going to
be history that's all we can hope for so we'll move on up to Thursday the 11th at
midnight call it Thursday at midnight or Friday at midnight the low seems to be a
little bit better organized but we need to move back just a little bit so we can
look Sergio's over in here now this is important too for all you guys right in
this area that so this is around 5:00 p.m. Thursday now the timing may not be
just exactly right but now it's at midnight Thursday you can see it comes
across this way here's Arizona I know the water is hard to see let me take the
pressure off you can see it better here's Arizona here's a New Mexico
looking like it's going to come this way where Rosa was more this way you think
this one's going to come in a little bit lower down to the south and move up and
here we have some circulation right in here not a big bad hurricane but
something to consider now also it looks like when this first starts to move up
it could be a low-end hurricane or a very high-end tropical storm when it
comes to Sergio so keep that in mind folks lots of rain either way we got
rain with this disturbance either way thank goodness Rosa is out of the way
Friday at 3:00 p.m. on the 12th of October now you can see where all of
this moisture is headed up Texas is going to get some New Mexico we have all
of these different places Nebraska it's just going to move up up up to the
northerly sections here so you guys are going to get more rain and I know a lot
of you do not need it but this is what it's looking like
suppose rain well this is the wind model we'll put it on the rain model right
quick here and we'll see exactly how much rain is coming some of this system
actually when it gets up high enough into Montana and South Dakota different
areas up in here it's going to rain that's then it will turn to snow how
about that look at that but when we come a little farther south
we got rain more rain in Arizona New Mexico this is rain down in here so
let's go back to the wind simply because you can see it a little better we have a
general idea where Sergio's going now all of this is a European model and it
may be a little different on the GFS however I think these models are in
pretty good agreement on most of these systems now this one looks like Florida
Panhandle could be Mississippi could be Alabama we're gonna make it bigger here
because this is important as I know it is I'm just getting over Florence well
I'm really not over it but I feel like I am from what I've been through I've come
so far here we are right in here this is the wind a world will it come in we'll
move up to 8 a.m. Saturday the 13th hasn't moved a whole lot still hanging
around in this area we'll move up a little bit more 5:00 p.m. this is 5:00
p.m. on Saturday the 13th you can see it's getting closer to the panhandle of
Florida let's make it just a little bit bigger so you guys can see it a little
better now it's moved a little to the west of what it was yesterday but I
still anybody over in here all the way to Tallahassee
I would keep my eyes on it this is looking like the Panhandle in Mobile
Alabama Panhandle Florida Mobile and this is around 6:00
p.m. Saturday the 13th said well hit the 14th Sunday around 2 a.m. looks like it
comes up right in this area right in this area so if I were you please be
aware of what's going on in everywhere from Mississippi to Alabama maybe parts
of Georgia and of course the Florida Panhandle you need to be aware of what's
going on now what about this is wind gust the highest of the wind gusts not
looking too bad I don't think we'll see what it says 29 knots out of the south
so that's not too bad not too bad could be a whole lot worse and we're
going to convert that right quick to make it easier on everyone round 31
miles per hour how about gust now this is sustained
winds let's check the gust out and we do have some gusts going on here
52 mile-per-hour wind gusts well that's a pretty healthy wind gusts be aware
people I'm just telling you not trying to be frightful just trying to keep you
informed when it comes to the rain lots of rain especially towards the center of
this system would you look at this is a lot of rain
there's crisp view there's Panama City there's mobile so now you can see a
little better where all this rain is going to dump and like I say none of
this is wrote in stone it can go either way this is just what it's looking like
as of now that's 2.71 tenths of an inch of rain in three hours and it could
actually be more than that so people please be aware of this okay and we
can't go but so much farther on this European model over to Sunday evening
now it's up in Alabama moving more towards the Alabama area I know you guys
have just had a lot of flooding a lot of rain going on in Alabama well that's
been happening all over everywhere it's just the way it is whether it's really
kind of weird this year huh we've had a lot of flood a lot of rain
mosquito problems Lord after Lawrence came to my house the mosquitoes were
awful but they've seemed to thin out a little
bit down there somewhat better over at the National Hurricane Center this says
2:00 a.m. it's really not it's later in the morning but I set this on the
five-day graph so I can show you what was happening with disturbance number
one it's going to go right through this little area maybe just a little bit of
land here not very much at all and remember at this time when it goes
across it's nothing but a big Rainmaker that's all it is it's got to get in the
Gulf before it actually forms so what does it say it's just an area of low
pressure okay just like I said now it's on the eastern border of Honduras and
Nicaragua it is accompanied by extensive area of disturbed weather extending from
Central America eastward across Hispaniola now although strong winds
along are located just to the north of the system the upper-level environment
is expected to be conducive enough to allow for some development and a
tropical depression could form by late this week well it's getting late this
week but so that means today I would think or early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico now you can look for this
to develop at any time now for your Monday that's what I think we'll have to
wait and see might be a little sooner might be a little later now regardless
of tropical cyclone formation the disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula during the next few days I had someone write me a note yesterday
what about the Caribbean said this and that it's just rain rain rain rain for
you guys okay now during the next two days 20% during the next five days
60% chance of forming over to Leslie well this morning Leslie is a tropical
storm with winds of 65 miles per hour with a minimum central pressure of 986
millibars if you're lucky locating that and tracking Leslie she's located at 35
point on North 58.3 west and Leslie has picked up tremendous speed as it's
moving north-northwest remember leslie stalled out a few times
and then she was going slow well now Leslie is moving to the north-northwest
at 14 miles per hour sérgio here's a tracking map from the
National Hurricane Center on Sergio which is a hurricane now will remain
that way you can see when it's going to turn and come back towards the
California Baja Peninsula though and it's going to make that turn sometime
late Sunday night moving on into Monday and Tuesday now it's still a pretty good
sized hurricane right now okay it should get down to at least a category one by
Monday and Tuesday and from that point folks we're just going to have to watch
it it may continue to disintegrate or it may not it's in some conditions right
now that or hardtail about so we've really just got to keep our eyes on and
see what happens hopefully it will keep on diminishing now Sergio's gonna run
into some shear when we got to see if they share wind holds out as you see in
the forecast positions and maximum winds yes
Sergio is a very powerful hurricane right now with 120 miles per hour but as
it travels and intertwines with this sheer wind you can see slowly but surely
it starts to disintegrate and by five days it's down to a category 1 hurricane
so hopefully it will keep on diminishing and winds
I would just have to wait and see now it's continued to turn to the left and
is now moving west northwest learn now northerly flow behind a mid-level trough
that will swing across a Baja California peninsula will likely push Sergio
west-southwest word by 24 hours the National Hurricane Center forecast
continues to reflect that scenario now after two days a break in the ridge left
behind the trough that allow Sergio to turn toward the north by days 3 & 4 and
another shortwave trough is then expected because a North eastward
acceleration by the end of the forecast period now all of these were coming to a
better agreement on this acceleration by day 5 and the new official forecast is
therefore a little faster than the previous one at this time so that's what
the tropics or looking like we got lots of stuff to watch seems like Lesley now
after weeks and weeks it's finally going to move on out we hope this is true we
have disturbance number one everybody in the Gulf states especially the Florida
Panhandle Alabama maybe parts of the Mississippi we just can't tell you all
we can look at it's what it looks like it might do it's not what it maybe will
do so we're hoping we can get a grip on it I'll let you know anything that
changes with this thank you so much for watching please be aware of these
systems and everyone out that just got hit by Rosa please prepare you may have
Sergio coming your way with that all said and done I ask you if you have not
yet to please subscribe click the bell check out the email notifications to
make sure you get all the latest on tropical news okay love you guys so much
thanks for the comments thanks for the likes thank you for everything you do
have a good day a blessed day much peace loving kindness to all thanks for
watching
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