and a good 1st of September 2018
Saturday to everybody time for the
tropical update with j7409 and my
goodness what a difference a night makes
boom people be aware people be aware of
Florence from the Bahamas to Florida to
Georgia possibly up to North Carolina
people be aware in the Gulf Coast I've
got lots to show you this morning this
stuff is so up in the air it is
unbelievable this morning first we will
start out over here this has a little
more punch to it not a whole lot well
let's skip this down here so you can see
what the National Hurricane Center has
to say here we go okay it's only risen
10% in the next five days but I think
this storm may have a little more punch
to it than what it's looking like I know
not a hurricane it might be a tropical
storm does it I said it might I'm not
saying it's going to be I'm saying it's
looking like it could very well be to me
but here's what the experts have to say
it says a tropical wave interacting with
an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms
from Hispaniola northward across the
Turks and the Calico Islands and this
activity is forecast to spread
west-northwestward enhancing rainfall
across portions of Hispaniola the Turks
the chemical Islands and the Bahamas as
well as Florida and the northern Gulf of
Mexico coasts through the middle of next
week
now strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent development of the
system during the next couple of days
but environmental conditions could
become less hostile when the system
moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico
during the early to middle part of next
week if we're going to check that out
okay in two days 0% in five days 20% and
now we have Florence over here this
morning it's looking like folks Florence
is going to
stay a very high in right on the verge
of being a hurricane but not quite
making it tropical storm this morning
who knows when I come back with the
tropical update to probably I'll be
different just like it is this morning I
really have some things to show you I
suggest everyone watch this to the end
now with Florence this morning the winds
of 40 miles per hour the minimum central
pressure 1,003 millibars located 14.6
north 27.2 west and florence is moving
west northwest at around 12 miles per
hour now we're looking at of course the
TV CN model this black track right here
here are the other models here this
black track this model takes all of
these models does the formula and makes
its own track not saying that it's going
to go like this but I have a lot of
things to show you with this this
morning okay
now Florence is traveling around the
edge of a subtropical Ridge everybody
and after about 48 hours it's going to
reach a breaking that Ridge and that
should cause it to slow down and turn
more to the north west to west areas
okay this by Thursday or Friday now the
European model has it going to move
big-time to the west and most of the
models seem to be trending away from
what they had have the recurve ation
scenario like you know it's going to
come out and go up and blah ddotty die
this is just what it's looking like
right now next time we look at this it's
probably going to change now Florence
has got a lot of things that make it
could strengthen Florence has got a lot
of things that says it can't spread
okay it seems that for the next two to
three days at least
when shear should be what is going
through but it's going to be low wind
shear but then after that the
environmental conditions in general are
going to be poor
then there
going to get better then the wind shares
going to pick up again so there's lots
of things right now that we have to
watch about Florence now looking at my
European model like I can't go quite as
far as my Fox can it can go another day
out I'm going to show you all of that
stuff but first let's concentrate on the
Gulf okay let's concentrate over here
this is on Monday afternoon around 1:00
you can see that this is getting ready
to come off the coast of Florida what
we've got going on folks remember the
high-pressure yesterday it pushed out
well guess what another one's going to
build back in look at that see this is
high pressure all of this is high
pressure pushing these systems down so
they can't just go move up and out
anyway let's check this out right quick
now look like I say this is Monday
afternoon around 1:00 p.m. so we'll go
up to early Tuesday morning and you can
see now it is a low pressure within
itself but there's no tightly compacted
isobars so this just looks like a big
fat at this point rain storm okay lots
of rain in it we'll move a little
further about 12 hours ahead to 6:00
p.m. Tuesday then it starts to get a
little bit of isobars but they're still
not tightly compacted no sign of a
hurricane and we'll have to wait and see
about the tropical storm because the
barometric pressure is still falling in
it but let's check the winds out at this
point and see what it's like yes it
these are sustained winds by the way
they're not really horrific but let's
say around 43 miles per hour so that's
tropical storm strength and that is
sustained so let's check out the gust
and the gust in
thing with the wind is 63 knots 63 knots
so that's even a little more so yeah I'd
say this is probably going to turn out
to be a tropical storm if it does it
will be called Gordon if it does I
didn't say it was I'm just saying
showing you what the European model is
showing us right now if it does it will
become Gordon so let's put back the rain
and the Thunder and here it is here so
we'll hop on over to winter day morning
around 4:00 a.m. you can see the center
is still not on any land by all you guys
from the Florida Panhandle up to Alabama
to Mississippi and Louisiana get right
in Texas you too now the barometric
pressure now is very low at twenty nine
point two seven I'll get a little more
detail with this as a days go by and
here is Wednesday afternoon around 3:00
looks like it's coming and land now
around Louisiana and going up into
Mississippi watch the winds like when it
reaches shore these are sustained winds
not looking too terribly bad because 23
so you can handle that that's no problem
not going to be the the wind the wind
before it actually gets to land it's
going to cause a lot of trouble along
the shorelines for people it's going to
be pumping in that water okay and how
about gust right quick yep still you can
see all the wind gust here look what's
going to be hitting land at this time
54 knots so that's pretty good wind so
far as a gust guy now we will come back
right quick I know this is long but I've
got to take this storm by storm
or system by system or whatever you
choose to call it so Thursday around
7:00 a.m. it's moving across Louisiana
Friday at 9:00 a.m. then it's starting
to come in to Texas all the you guys
right up in here does it still have wind
sustained winds aren't too terribly bad
does it have any gust yeah it still has
some gusts to it and there are about 42
knots the wind gust it will have some
sustained wind in the area of around
probably I'd say anywhere from 30 to 35
miles per hour so we'll go to Friday
evening around p.m. and it is moving
down the coast going right over the
Houston area okay so this is as far as
I'm going to go on this one you can see
30 3006 high pressure pushing it down
that's why it's riding the coastline
okay and it should continue to ride the
coastline and I'll get more detail on
this one in a little bit but I am saying
folks everybody from the Florida coast
all the way up the Panhandle all the way
across Alabama Mississippi Louisiana and
the Texas coast don't really get upset
but on the same side it looks like this
could be a tropical storm for you might
be a little more than what everybody's
forecasting not saying it's going to
just showing you what I see so do
prepare okay okay few moments ago I told
you when it come to Florence the
intensity models we're all over the
place when the way you look at this gee
golly wow we've got all of these down
here saying it's going to stay at this
strength we got all of these up here
saying it's going to stay at this
strength and then we've got these two up
here most of the time when the models
are in agreement the majority this is
about half and half and just to okay
there's there's not a happy medium in
here so the strengthening at this
it's really hard to tell it's looking
like though it may hit 70 I don't think
it'll hit 75 right now who knows uh we
need to keep our eyes on this okay this
is set on September 11th we want to
click it on three right quick here so
we'll get up to the first for today and
of course this is from my Fox so
European model it's up to date the
latest run easy for you to say and I'm
gonna show you on my regular one it's a
very same thing okay
now here we go alright all of this red
and this Brown has a high pressure
building back in its going to make a lot
of difference and here is Florence with
how the steering goes and here we got
keep your eye on Florence as we move
through you can see Florence kind of
weakens down look at that see how
Florence is weakened down and the other
system has come off the coast now and
here is the system so you guys will need
to keep your eyes open and please listen
to your local weather forecasting and
keep abreast of everything in your
particular area with this system so now
we're going to move up to the seventh
this system starts to die out a little
as I just showed you once it comes
across the land and look this looks like
nothing Florence looks like she's dead
this system still here but watch what
happens
Florence gets in warm water no wind
shear in Florence is headed right over
towards anywhere from North Carolina
down to the Florida and the Bahamas will
probably feel something too in this
system right behind it is starting to
intensify and this is as far as we can
go the 11th of September here is
Florence it's just north of the Bahamas
at this point it may hit Florida and may
not Georgia South Carroll
we'll have to wait and see and you can
see this is still a low-pressure system
right here should be bringing lots of
rain to Texas and this sucker we got to
look out and watch it too because it is
intensifying also now let's concentrate
excuse me on Florence here and then we
have a low here and a low here this is
set for the seventh of September already
okay so we're going to move it up to
around 1:00 p.m. 8:00 which is Saturday
we're going to see how the stuff
progresses along we'll go to Sunday the
around 1:00 p.m. you can see this this
is still moving over this way it's not
going up yet this one has a little
curvature in it and this one's kind of
fizzling out now it's not even
considered a low-pressure system it's
just a tropical wave this went still
here I can only go as far as Monday at
7:00 p.m. on this particular model that
I'm using with the European here but you
see it has it moving over this way also
and this one's getting a little better
organized with a few more isobars but by
this time it's looking like florence has
her act together as a very high-end
tropical storm and we're going to wrap
it up here all the watches and warnings
for the tropical storm warning network
for the Kappa Verde Islands well there
are none now they have all been
discontinued okay
they have all been discontinued once
again Florence is moving around 14 miles
per hour west-northwest this morning and
it is expected to continue this way
through Tuesday okay
and the winds are around 40 miles per
hour with higher gusts and the tropical
storm-force winds are extending outward
around 35 miles from the center and so
far as the rain goes it's looking like 1
to 2 inches of rain across the southern
capital Verde Islands today and that's
it for the tropical update this morning
I'll be sure and watch and stuff any
changes that I see I will put them up
later this afternoon and evening for you
what a difference a night makes again
all these things are beginning to change
I will say this I think that with 90
days left in hurricane season it's
possible we could have some in October
somewhere it's very possible not saying
it's not going to but with all of the
conditions the way they seem to be it
seems to me looking like September is
going to be the month if you have any
kind of tropical storm or hurricane
threat it should be this month however
that we have to go through to the first
and second of November to make sure we
don't get any it is possible we can have
something I'm just saying the conditions
this year are just looking like this is
the month so with all of that said and
done please please please subscribe
everybody I knew all my people who watch
me you have your hurricane kids ready if
you need them for tropical storms or
hurricanes I hope you do anyway please
subscribe click the bell check off the
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all this information share it with your
friends especially my people down around
the Gulf Coast states this could turn
into a bigger storm than what it is
being forecast I'm not saying it's going
to but you know what you can go ahead
and prepare and if you don't need to
stop you know you can always use it
later it's not like you're wasting money
or wasting your time and energy it's
better to be prepared and I've showed
you exactly what it's looking like so
with that all said and done please
subscribe please share this information
and we just best keep our eyes on
Florence - because Florence hadn't sang
her last note yet I love you guys have a
good weekend a safe weekend and much
peace loving kindness to each of you I
thank you for everything you do for me
and I'll be back with you later with the
good Lords will thanks for watching
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